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Santa Clara County Real Estate Market Dynamics

Santa Clara County Months Supply of Inventory Through Oct 2011The most updated Market Dynamics statistics for Santa Clara County through October 2011 can be found by clicking this link.  These statistics are for Single Family and Condo/Townhomes in Santa Clara County.

Here are some highlights to pay particular attention to as you review the data/graphs through October 2011:

1. Median Price- The Median Price dipped down modestly again for the fourth month in a row to $472,000 from last month’s mark of $476,000.  October 2011’s median price is less than the same month for the past two years (2010/$521,000 & 2009/$512,000).  The two year average Median is $507,000.

2. Supply & Demand (Units)- What we are measuring in each of these categories is the two year average moving trend; The two year trend line for the following categories, For Sale (supply/inventory), Under Contract (pending sales) and Sold (closed escrows), are as follows – For Sale/inventory continued its downward slide @ -7.8%.  The number of under contract properties (pending sales) continued to trend up significantly +23.4% and the sold/closed escrows reversed the downward trajectory from last month turning back up  +1.5%. Pending sales, which continue in a positive, upward trajectory reached 1536 at of the end of October 2011 as compared to 1171 in October 2010 and 1520 in October of 2009 …this increase in pending sales indicates the potential for a strong final closing month of 2011.

3. Month’s Supply of Inventory (MSI) & Days on Market- The overall Months Supply of Inventory (months of inventory available based on the total existing supply divided by the rate of sales) amazingly, continues to decline and remained at or near a five year low of 2.1 months supply at month end,  down from last month’s figure of 2.7 months (and also less than the level of October 10’/4.9 month’s supply and also less than October of two years ago: 3.4 month’s supply). Days on market increased slightly for the fourth month in a row, up from 65 to 67 days month over month.  The Month’s Supply of Inventory is one marker that should be given particular attention as the lowest month’s supply in several years is keeping pressure on the market and is a key factor in sustaining valuation levels and leading to appreciation potential over time.

4. Sales Absorption- Measuring the two year average trend line in the following categories shows under contract properties continuing their upward climb (+40.5%) and number of closed/sold escrows also clicked up further into positive territory (+11.4%) over the past two years (both figures showing increasing strength when compared to the prior month).  Another compelling statistic in this graph remains Percent Under Contract (at a five year high)….28.1% of the active properties/listings were under contract at the end of October, which is up from 24% in September and 23.6% in August (as a further comparison October 2010/15.2% and October 2009/20.5%).  This percent under contract figure is another key marker to pay attention to as the two year average remains at 18.6% and we are presently north of this mark.  As we have discussed in our sales meetings, this is the highest percentage of active listings we have seen under contract in nearly 5 years.   Additionally, it has been suggested that 25% PUC is the mark of equilibrium in the Bay Area real estate where the market is no longer slanted in favor of the buyer or seller.

As we predicted at the end of 2010, Month’s Supply of Inventory and the Percent Under Contract have been key indicators to studying this year’s market.  The Month’s Supply has touched five plus year lows while the Percent of active listings under contract has reached heights not seen in over five years.  The other interesting and positive note has been the increased number of pending sales particularly during the latter half of this year.  In a supply and demand market such as real estate, the formula is simple; when you combine these statistics with increasing buyer demand and activity, the result will be a robust market and the beginnings of price appreciation.  We anticipate a strong finish for 2011 (particularly considering the large number of pending sales in the pipeline) with continued and increased momentum into 2012 throughout Silicon Valley and the Bay Area. Continued…

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By Chris Trapani – November 28, 2011

Sereno Group Annual Pumpkin Decorating Contest

Sereno Group Pumpkin Decorating contestHalloween is almost here and it is time to get creative! Sereno’s in on the spirit too. Each year, Sereno Group Real Estate offices in the San Jose, Peninsula, Santa Cruz and Silicon Valley area have a Halloween pumpkin decorating contest for kids. Winner’s pumpkins (and names of winners if parental permission is received) will be advertised in our local papers after the contest is finished. And of course there are prizes!!

Some of the pumpkins which have been turned in so far in 2011 to a Sereno Group real estate office. Go kids!What do you need to know?  Here are the contest rules:

Absolutely No Carving!

Decorate your own small pumpkin, or pick up a complimentary pumpkin at one of our offices in Los Gatos, Saratoga, Soquel/Santa Cruz, Los Altos, or Palo Alto.

3 age groups: toddler, early elementary, late elementary

All contestants will receive a gift goodie bag

One grand prize per age group, per office, will be awarded

Any carved or punctured pumpkins will be disqualified due to rotting

All entries must be dropped off at your nearest Sereno Group Office by Friday, October 21st at 5pm. Judging will happen the week of October 24th during our regular real estate marketing meeting.

Where and when can you drop off a pumpkin?

Please find the office locations and hours below (Palo Alto, Saratoga, Los Gatos, Santa Cruz/Soquel – next year the Willow Glen office will be open too!). We are looking forward to seeing some wonderful kids’ creations!

Sereno Group office locations for pumkin decorating contest 2011

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By Ryan Iwanaga – October 16, 2011

EATING ON “THE AVENUE” IN DOWNTOWN WILLOW GLEN

A patron of Grapevine sits outside and enjoys "The Avenue."

Whether you choose to start your morning at a Starbuck’s or at Peet’s, or want to end your day with a glass of wine or a Margarita, Lincoln Avenue in downtown Willow Glen offers a bevy of gastronomical delights to satisfy everyone’s taste and budget. A walk down “The Avenue,” can be just what you need to satisfy your taste buds.

Soon to be the home of Sereno Group Willow Glen, our goal of Redefining Real Estate will be a lot more fun being in the heart of downtown and just walking distance from a host of “good eats.”

Starting at the corner of Lincoln Avenue and Willow Street, Bill’s Café is a long-time favorite of the breakfast crowd. The smell of good old fashioned pancakes and waffles, traditional bacon and eggs or the more fanciful Eggs Benedict draws you in like a moth to a flame. Bill’s serves up a healthy portion for a reasonable price. Just be ready for a short wait.

If you are in a bit more of a hurry, there are our old standards, Noah’s Bagels, Jamba Juice and Pete’s Coffee. Of course, Starbuck’s is not far away located at the other end of the avenue at Lincoln and Minnesota Avenues.

A cornerstone of the neighborhood is Willow Street Wood-Fired Pizza. With an excellent selection of entrees, pasta dishes, great salads and delicious thin crust pizza, Willow Street is a family favorite for lunch and dinner. I recently had the Grilled Salmon with Fresh Mango Salsa, which was done to perfection. Their daily specials are fresh, imaginative and mouth-watering.

Aqui Cal-Mex, serves a unique fusion of fresh, healthy and scrumptious California-Mexican wraps, salads and entrees. Aqui’s provides outdoor seating in their rear patio, which is heated during the cooler season. My wrap of choice is the Crisp Crabcake Wrap with chipotle dressing, jicama and organic spinach. You can enjoy your meal with a fresh Mango Margarita from the restaurant’s full service bar.

La Villa Deli & Gourmet Shop is famous for fresh home-made ravioli, cooked and cured meats, cheeses and Italian sweets. Many weekends the outdoor BBQ tempts you from blocks away with the aroma of grilling meats. This is a MUST shopping adventure when visiting The Avenue

Top rated Taiwan Restaurant specializes in Szechwan, Cantonese and Taiwan dishes. Taiwan has been a landmark of The Avenue for over 14 years. Pay attention to the little red “pepper” on the menu. When they say “hot,” they mean HOT!

John’s XLNT Foods, established in 1976 has been a longstanding family restaurant serving Greek, Italian and American comfort foods. Almost any weekend you can expect a line outside waiting for breakfast or lunch. The corn beef and hash is “best of show” on their menu.

Continued…

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By Nora Sandoval – September 28, 2011

APTOS IS FOR THE BIRDS

One of the curious and amazing events on our Monterey Bay is the gathering of Sooty Shearwaters, the dark medium size birds that swarm by the millions over large masses of Anchovies.

These remarkable birds travel 39,000 miles from their breeding grounds in New Zealand and Chile. Taking advantage of prevailing winds along different parts of the migration route, the birds trace giant figure eights over the Pacific Basin.

The birds travel that distance in one season and stop little to eat on the way. They then feast on shrimp, krill and fish, often diving to 225 feet! Electronic tags have recorded birds diving to these depths to capture their prey. Average dive depth was about 14 meters (46 feet).

Sooty Shearwater fly 65,000 km (39,000 miles) in a roundtrip journey each year. It is the longest recorded animal migration.

These noisy birds fly by dipping from side to side on stiff wings with few wing beats, the wingtips almost touching the water. Its flight is powerful and direct, with wings held stiff and straight, giving the impression of a very small albatross. This shearwater is identifiable by its dark plumage which is responsible for its name. In poor viewing conditions it looks all black, but in good light it shows as dark chocolate-brown a silvery strip along the center of the underwing.

Alfred Hitchcock was interested in the invasion of the birds into Rio Del Mar, a neighborhood in Aptos.


When a dense fog hung over the coast on August 18th, 1961,the birds got confused and followed the lights from Pleasure Point to Rio Del Mar. Residents woke up to dead and dazed birds all over the ground. The birds had disgorged their fishy feast so the whole neighborhood was pretty stinky!

At this time, famed movie director Alfred Hitchcock, occasional resident of Scotts Valley, was preparing to film Daphne du Maurier’s novel The Birds. He called the Santa Cruz Sentinel requesting a copy of the article about the invading birds!

So when you come to Santa Cruz beaches in May-June or early July, watch for the huge gathering of Sooty Shearwaters and the dolphins that join them in a fishy snack. It’s an amazing site to see them swirl in a side circle devouring a meal!

A video of their seaside residence: Sooty Shearwaters

For more information on Monterey Bay properties, Please contact Terry Ballantyne.

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By Terry Ballantyne – September 1, 2011

How to sell a “hard to sell house”

Even in a red hot seller’s market, not every home sells. Some properties languish on the market – racking up 120, 200, 300 “days on market” or more.  Often pricing is the issue: the house is simply over priced for the current market conditions.  But while pricing is the most common culprit as to why homes don’t sell, it’s not the only reason. (Some agents will say that “the right price can fix any problem” but often it’s less expensive to address other things before changing the list price – and our goal is to net our sellers the most money so we need to not be lazy and think that pricing is the only possible issue and a price reduction the only solution.)

If a Silicon Valley condo, house or townhouse isn’t getting any offers, it’s important to take a hard look at the situation and see what’s happening.  Potential culprits could be neighborhood conditions (too many cars on the street, close proximity of high voltage power lines, neighbors who don’t keep up their yards – these things we cannot change but perhaps can only address via price), interior problems such as clutter, cooking odors or poor staging, structural issues, showing difficulties (sellers hanging around during showings, no lockbox, appointment only viewings, overly restrictive showing schedule);  geologic or natural hazard issues (being on a major earthquake fault zone or flood plain, having property or access which is scary or steep – these can’t be fixed, in most cases), bad feng shui or a myriad of other issues, some of which can be changed and some of which cannot. 

Ineffective or below par marketing  can be at fault sometimes.  The most common marketing error I see is bad photography or a lack of photos altogether.  A  low commission rate offered to the buyer’s agent may play a role in low showings too so scrutinize that also – this is also a marketing issue.  (I have a few times seen compensation offered to the buyer’s agent at $1 or just a little more – that won’t really entice a buyer’s agent to show the property.)  But please realize that even if an agent did all the marketing in the world, it won’t work if the price is wrong – so that must be on target for the marketing to be effective for San Jose, Los Gatos, Saratoga and Santa Clara County homes.

Pricing target How serious is the problem?  We can understand it if we begin with some basic questions: 

  1. Are there showings? Do cars pull up and drive by rather than having its occupants get out to see the property?  If they aren’t getting out of the car at all, we have a big problem!
  2. Are there only a few showings?  We like to see 3-5 per week at least. If it’s fewer than that, we need to find out why and discover a way to boost the showings.
  3. Are there enough showings but no offers? If that’s the case, pricing or condition or marketing is probably not too far off.  Perhaps only small tweaks are needed to get a market value offer!

If your home isn’t selling, it’s helpful to take in the feedback (assuming some has been provided), spend a great deal of time understanding current market conditions so you don’t over price, and make sure that the property has great marketing, access, and appeal.   Find out what’s scaring buyers off and if possible, correct that first. Sometimes it’s hard to hear negative feedback about your landscaping, decor, or whatever it may be (and please don’t shoot the messenger!) but working with a good real estate professional should be a little like working with other professionals on your team – they need to be able to tell you the truth, even if it’s not fun to hear.  Make sure you welcome the feedback!

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By Mary Pope-Handy – August 11, 2011

CARBON MONOXIDE DETECTORS & THE NEW REQUIREMENT

Today is July 1, 2011 and many of us are getting ready for a leisurely holiday weekend as we celebrate July 4th with family and friends.  If you’re looking for new laws to review over the weekend,-aren’t we all -here is one that falls into a safety category. . . Carbon Monoxide Detectors, installation required as of 7-1-11.

Smoke detectors have been a part of our homes for many years and most of us hope never to need them.  The same applies to Carbon Monoxide detectors.  Because Carbon Monoxide is known as the “Silent “Killer” (it is odorless, colorless and tasteless), it  can catch its victims completely unaware.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports that more than 400 people in the U.S. are killed annually from CO poisoning.  This represents the leading cause of accidental poisoning deaths in the U.S.  The majority of these occur in residential settings.

The new law requires the alarms must be installed outside each separate sleeping area in the immediate vicinity and on every level.  There are various types of alarms to choose from and depending if its new or existing homes will dictate the type to be used.

The options available are affordable, easy to install, and available at all hardware stores.  Please take 30 minutes out of your day to purchase and install your Carbon Monoxide Detector.  You will be able to rest easier knowing that you are protected.  Most, if not all, carbon monoxide poisoning cases are preventable.

To find out more specifics about detectors, the law and general information, please go to:  http://casafehomes.org/law.html.

As the saying goes, “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure!”

To contact Mary Kay Groth, visit www.marykaygroth.com.

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By Mary Kay Groth – July 2, 2011

SERENO GROUP AWARDED TOP WORKPLACES IN GREAT BAY AREA

2011 Top Workplaces Sereno Group

Nick Warner of the SJ Mercury News, Alicia Nuzzo, Lisa Williams, Ryan Iwanaga, and Chris Trapani

For the second consecutive year, Sereno Group Real Estate has been recognized as the top work place in the greater Bay Area by the Bay Area News Group in their prestigious TOP WORKPLACES 2010 list, an annual profile of the top 65 places to work in the Bay Area’s five counties.

“We are honored to be named to this prestigious list for the second year in a row and very, very humbled to be named the number one organization again,” said Chris Trapani, President and CEO of Sereno Group, “To be twice given the honor of Top Workplace in the Greater Bay Area and to be associated with so many wonderful companies is a tremendous testament to our team.”

Sereno Group ranks as the top spot in the small company category (50 to 150 employees) out of 1,370 total companies from all sectors of the five county Bay Area business profile, representing 34,375 employees and includes high tech and engineering companies, law firms, non-profits, and government organizations.  Sereno Group is the only residential real estate brokerage ranked in any of the three company size categories.

The Bay Area News Group compiles the rankings annually.  The Top Workplaces 2011 list is based solely upon a comprehensive survey of Bay Area company employees and their overall satisfaction with their respective companies.

For more information, visit:  http://www.topworkplaces.com/survey/resultslist/bayarea_11.

Open since July 1, 2006, Sereno Group Real Estate has quickly established itself as a market leader by continually attracting top producing agents in the Silicon Valley. During this time, Sereno Group has achieved the highest per agent productivity for residential real estate brokers in the county.  In 2010, Sereno Group ranked as the #7 brokerage in the United States for per agent closed sales volume in Real Trend’s annual national brokerage rankings report. The company now has five offices located in Los Gatos, Saratoga, Los Altos, Santa Cruz, and Palo Alto.  The 146 agents of Sereno Group sell and service the Santa Clara, San Mateo and Santa Cruz Counties and points beyond.

For more information, visit www.serenogroup.com.

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By Ryan Iwanaga – June 27, 2011

ALL ABOUT SANTA CRUZ WINERIES

winery tasting roomYou don’t have to go to Napa, burn gas, pay $300.00 a night for a room to go wine tasting and meet some nice folks. No, no, no my little oenophile!

You can pedal over to the Ingalls Street Courtyard and have a fantastic afternoon and never get in a car!

Located at the top of Santa Cruz just before you head out towards Davenport, turn left on Swift Street and a short distance to Ingalls St where you turn left again. Park the car. And forget about it.

Here you will find over 10 winery tasting rooms, 2 of which I’ll talk about here.

Let’s start with Silver Mountain Winery. Jerold O’Brien has been producing wine for over 30 years from his vines high atop the Santa Cruz Mountains. His Certified Organic vineyard sits at almost 2100′ above the sea with commanding views over the mountains and looking down onto a distant Highway 17! Amongst the clouds, the occasional snow flurries, and the gorgeous sunlight, Jerold’s grapes thrive.

Growing tender Pinot grapes is his passion and his wine reflects this commitment. Along side these luscious reds is his crisp Chardonnay. Not overly oaky or loaded with butter, Jerold’s Chard is a favorite at the tasting room. The Chardonnay grapes are also grown at the vineyard and are organic.

Members of his very successful wine club stop at the winery to taste as a benefit of membership and enjoy 20% off on all the wine they buy during the year, except of course, Jerold’s generously discounted collections, like his Economic Recovery Special, featuring Spencer’s Choice Pinot . Spencer is the beautiful blue eyed winery dog who presides over the porch! This velvety elixir is sumptuous and opens in the glass beautifully.

The second Silver Mountain tasting room is located at 402 Ingalls St Suite 29, right next to the Santa Cruz Organic Brewery and is open Thursday through Sunday Noon to 5 ish! If the room is packed , they’ll keep pouring! The winery itself is open only Saturday, Noon to 5:00PM and is located about 9 miles up Old San Jose Road, turn right at Miller Hill Cut off.

Next stop is across the courtyard to Sones Cellars. Michael and Lois Sones met at sea on a cruise ship, so the masthead on their label is a nod to that romance!

I love their Cancione Del Mar, or Song of the Sea, a crisp blend of great whites, using Sauvignon Blanc, Pinot Gris, Torrontes and my beloved Viognier. This blend is redolent of pineapple and pear, soft and yet has a nice slice of mineral, like a ripe apple cut with a carbon knife!

Another fun offering at Sones Cellars is the The Hedgehog. You purchase a special bottle that you can bring in and refill with quality table wine, much as they did in the old days! This is a great red wine and perfect for Friday dinner.

If you haven’t visited this chic and lively little corner of Santa Cruz, you need to stop missing the fun! I’ll share more tidbits about the other wineries soon! And of course a story on Kelly’s French Bakery who started the whole enterprise on Ingalls.

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By Terry Ballantyne – June 20, 2011

LOVELY, PEACEFUL APTOS

cabrillo community collegeAptos is in the south part of Santa Cruz County and is home to Cabrillo College, the historic Bayview Hotel, The Forest of Nicene Marks, Aptos Village, a fantastic Farmers Market, the celebrated Cement Ship, and one of the only walk entry beaches in the county at Rio Del Mar.

Aptos is named for an American Ohlone Indian word meaning the ‘meeting of two creeks’. In Aptos the Valencia and Aptos Creek come together. The residents pronounce it App-Toss.

Aptos is in the 11th Senate District and the 27th Assembly District.

Aptos Rancho was granted to Rafael Castro by the Mexican government in 1833, (Castroville fame). When California became a state, he leased the land to Americans and in 1853, a tannery was built on the site of the recently sold Apple Lane Bed and Breakfast.

Claus Spreckles, the sugar millionaire began leasing land from Castro in 1872 where he built a hotel and summer mansion near the beach. He fenced the entire area and stocked it with deer, hence the Deerpark Center!

Between1880 and 1920 Aptos was a redwood boom town. The Loma Prieta lumber company logged all of what is now the Forest of Nicene Marks. You can see the remains of the beautiful old growth redwoods surrounded by rings of newer growth. Even today , despite that early destruction, the forest is a magical place to walk, run or bike. Ferns about, vinca minor, coast iris, berry vines, and of course lots of poison ivy.

The Valencia Mill logged everything to the east. Within 40 years the hills were bare. Sad to think of all those beautiful trees being cut down. But with the hills bare it gave rise to another industry, apples. The old apple packing shed became Village Fair Antiques.

has population of just under 10,0000 people. It sits at 108′ above sea level, and is 7 square miles. Aptos is surrounded by hills and forests and

The climate is generally the same as Santa Cruz county with the exception of some years there is a little more fog, especially in Rio Del Mar township. But typically it burns off , unless the whole coast is socked in and then the day is bright with sunlight.

For more information regarding Aptos and the coastal area market, please contact Terry Ballantyne at tballantyne@comcast.net.

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By Terry Ballantyne – June 16, 2011

LOS GATOS CREEK TRAIL CLEAN-UP DAY

Recently, Sereno Group had the opportunity to give back to our community by putting together an impromptu Los Gatos Creek Trail clean-up day.

In Los Gatos, we organized a morning of trail beautification of the Los Gatos Creek Trail.  The trail is a wonderful public venue that offers a mix of paved and dirt pathways, travelling from the border of Willow Glen in San Jose through Vasona Park to the top of Lexington Dam at the foot of the Los Gatos Mountains.

You can find walkers, runners, cyclists, dog walkers, families and friends on the path every day of the week, with larger numbers on weekends and warmer days.  If you have not visited the trail, you should plan to do so.  I am sure once you visit the trail, you will return often, discovering something new each time.

On a recent Saturday, a group of Sereno Group agents decided to clean up the segment of the Los Gatos Creek Trail between Downtown Los Gatos and Lexington Dam.  The dirt trail is a favorite of local residents as it is wide with several path options, offers easy and challenging terrain, and gets away from the buzz of town quickly.

As users of the trail who love all that our area has to offer, we thought it would be a great idea to walk both sides of the trail to pick up trash and help with the sustainability of an important community hub.  The trail is well-maintained and respected by visitors, but small pieces of garbage and dropped items do accumulate.

With garbage bags, rubber gloves and a good spirit, we slowly walked the trail and picked up enough garbage to fill four 13 gallon garbage bags.  We made the time very social, saw and visited with friends on the trail and felt great about giving back in a small way to the community we serve.

To learn more about Sereno Group and about the ways in which we are trying to redefine real estate, please visit www.serenogroup.com.

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By Ryan Iwanaga – June 12, 2011